And if Kp is currently elevated due to a phenomena called corotating or stream interaction, then be on the lookout for elevated Kp and potential for auroral viewing 27 days or one solar rotation from now. The red bars indicate a Kp higher than 4, which makes your odds of seeing an aurora greater.
You can check out the SWPC Estimated Planetary K-index graph to see what has been happening during the past few days. Generally, you are looking for a Kp of 5 or greater. The higher the Kp index is, the better your chances are for seeing an aurora. To do this, you’ll check an index called Kp, a number from 0–9, which is used to rate the global geomagnetic activity for a 3-hour period. To know whether you have a chance of seeing an aurora, you need to know the level of geomagnetic activity at the time you are viewing. Impress Your Friends, Predict the (Space) Weather
NORTHERN LIGHTS FORECAST ALASKA FULL
Of course, local weather, light pollution from city lights, a full moon, and other factors can affect your viewing possibilities as well. NOAA scientists at the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) monitor and track these phenomena related to space weather and have developed methods to predict the likelihood of significant aurora.īeing able to see the aurora depends mainly on two factors, geomagnetic activity (the degree of disturbance of the earth’s magnetic field at the time) and your geographic location. Space weather-caused by geoeffective solar activity such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections-can impact the space between here and the sun, causing an aurora as a byproduct.
The Northern Lights evolve from the sun’s activity that affects the conditions in space. Monitoring Space Weather to Predict AurorasĪuroras exist in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, but the northern counterpart is far more popular for tourists hoping to catch a glimpse of the display. There’s no doubt that the stunning light shows, known scientifically as the Aurora Borealis (Aurora Australis in the Southern Hemisphere), are not only an item on many people’s bucket lists, but also a boom to the local economies lucky enough to have a front-row seat for the show.įor those of us who aren’t lucky enough to view the Northern Lights from our living rooms, like those in Iceland or the Canadian Yukon, how do we know when is a good time to book our plane tickets and bundle up for a trip to see this spectacle? Thankfully, science has the answer. From September until April, when the days are at their shortest and often their darkest, the Northern Lights are at their brightest.
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